A worrying flight to the exurbs: The growing crisis of young people fleeing the GTA

It is a pattern that emerged as a worrying sign close to a decade ago and has been ramping up ever since.
Population out-migration from the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) to other parts of Ontario or Canada is not new — people move for work, family, retirement or simply the desire for new experiences.
What is new about this out-migration now is “who” is departing: it is predominantly younger people, and younger families. And why? Housing. Failure to address this will have profound implications for the region that is the economic heartland of Canada.
At BILD, we noticed this first in early 2019 as we were conducting research that looked at housing starts and completions versus population growth (past and anticipated). A small by-product of this work was the stark realization that there was a marked increase in people leaving the GTA for other parts of Canada.
The population was still growing of course, especially in light of increasing immigration levels, but so too was the flow out. In subsequent research reports, we dug into the details and several concerning indicators emerged.
First, the biggest destinations were other metropolitan areas in Southwestern Ontario, like Waterloo and London.
Second, the largest demographics represented were people between 18 and 36 — particularly families with young children.
Third, a key driver for their departure was to find the type of home they wanted at a cost they could afford.
Last, and perhaps most concerning, is that the pace of this out-migration has been growing rapidly. In fact, our research indicated that there are many neighbourhoods in the city of Toronto where the population is both shrinking and aging rapidly.
A combination of empty nesters, aging baby boomers and fewer young families moving in is contributing to this.
A piece of public opinion research conducted by IPSOS for BILD earlier this year shows that 46 per cent of people who rent in the GTA, and higher in younger people, are looking to move outside the region to other parts of Ontario to buy a house.
It also identified that 44 per cent would move outside of Ontario to buy a home (again higher in younger people). This same survey revealed that three quarters of GTA residents are unsatisfied with the availability and affordability of homes to purchase and rent in their neighbourhood, and an increase in the general dissatisfaction with the quality of life in the region.
It is therefore hardly surprising that BILD’s most recent Municipal Benchmarking Report (conducted by Altus Economic Group Consulting) for the GTA found that between 2022 and 2024, out-migration doubled compared to pre-pandemic years.
So, what does this really mean?
First, it means that the populations in the neighbourhoods and cities that are experiencing the largest outflow will age at a rate faster than the Canadian average.
If this continues, it will have a significant impact and disproportionately affect the needs of many sectors of society, including labour, demands for types of goods and services, and essential infrastructure like hospitals, schools, social services and transportation.
Second, it is exporting the GTA’s housing crisis to other regions in Ontario and the country. Increased out-migration from our region means increased migration to cities like London, Waterloo, Guelph, and even Halifax and Fredericton.
Not only does this create housing price appreciation in those markets, but it also means all forms of infrastructure and social services now require significant investments to support the growth. It is not solving the housing crisis, it is expanding it.
Third, the GTA is the economic engine of Canada, accounting for almost a half of Ontario’s GDP and a quarter of Canada’s GDP. The loss of workers and talent deeply affects everything that fuels this economic growth and threatens the economic vitality of the region — and thus Canada as a whole.
Lastly, we risk losing the social vitality that comes with multi-generational communities.
Parks full of neighbourhood children, young families getting advice from long-time residents, and grandparents helping with school pickups or child care.
It is these everyday interactions that are foundational to creating a community — and contain a generational balance that we have taken for granted.
The sad and most frustrating part of young families leaving the GTA is that it is a solvable problem. Producing housing at a pace, with the right housing mix and at a cost that young families can afford, can be accomplished in the GTA — it simply requires the will of governments to do something to lower added costs, increase the availability of land, speed up approval and prioritize housing.
Without exaggeration, the economic vitality and social fabric of our communities will be defined by how we respond to these undisputable facts.
We need to take steps now to address the structural challenges that are preventing the housing industry from building housing that our communities are demanding.